@seattleflustudy This case, WA2, is on a branch in the evolutionary tree that descends directly from WA1, the first reported case in the USA sampled Jan 19, also from Snohomish County, viewable here: nextstrain.org/ncov?f_divisio… 2/9 pic.twitter.com/LBH26A0AFC
However, 0.7 is still much higher than influenza, which is one of the leading causes of mortality every year. And, it’s clear that when health systems are overwhelmed, e.g, in Wuhan, the CFR climbs. Preparedness & surveillance could not be more important. ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
The @WHO just released their China mission report on #COVID19. It’s a wealth of information and also contains a much lower estimate of the case fatality rate (0.7% for cases diagnosed after Feb 1 outside Wuhan) who.int/docs/default-s… pic.twitter.com/HHiNnyR0Tv
I want to note that this is EXACTLY how epidemics work. Using the COVID-19 estimated doubling time of 1.5 days, epidemic looks like it’s smoldering and “nothing is happening” for 2 weeks — like a small regional outbreak. And then, absent intervention, it just EXPLODES. | @mqdicer pic.twitter.com/W3s8rD58xJ
@florian_krammer I hope you are right but their huge surge in cases has only occurred in the past 2 weeks. Given it takes, on average 2- 8 weeks from symptom onset to death in most fatal cases, it really could be just too soon for their patients to start dying in big numbers. pic.twitter.com/66VegPr6Bn
🕯RIP Dr. Jiang Xueqing 🙏
So sad that another doctor died from #COVID19 on the frontline, at age of 55!
Dr. Jiang was a winner of China's top doctor award. He worked in the same hospital as Dr. Li Wenliang, was among the 1st HCWs infected, hospitalized on Jan.17, on ECMO >30d pic.twitter.com/yKndph9OwI